A Post-Facto Take on Modi–Shah’s Tamil Nadu Gameplan

A Post-Facto Take on Modi–Shah’s Tamil Nadu Gameplan

Taking the liberty of some post-facto reasoning, what exactly was Narendra Modi–Amit Shah’s Tamil Nadu gameplan?

A few key decisions stand out:

• Why was K. Annamalai removed and the reins handed over to Nainar Nagendran?

• Why did the BJP align with Edappadi K. Palaniswami and the AIADMK?

The answer lies in understanding the internal and external objectives simultaneously.

Within the Tamil Nadu unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party, there were multiple backstabbers and internal detractors. One clear goal was to ensure that this “B-team of ADMK” within the BJP was cleansed.

At the same time, the larger political objective remained unchanged: defeat the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. But that alone wasn’t enough. The AIADMK also needed to be weakened structurally.

This is where the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam becomes crucial. With TVK acting as a strategic lever, the BJP effectively managed to get three outcomes with one move:

• DMK out of power

• AIADMK weakened, along with the removal of Annamalai’s detractors within the TN BJP

• An inexperienced, unreliable, megalomaniacal leader positioned as Chief Minister

In effect, three birds with one stone.

This, in essence, looks like the BJP’s Tamil Nadu gameplan.

Skewed Samples, Skewed Results: Questioning Exit Poll Accuracy in Tamil Nadu

 According to data compiled from Indian Express and other public sources, the approximate community-wise composition of Tamil Nadu’s population is as follows:

Vanniyars: 15%

Thevars (Mukkulathor): 12%

Scheduled Castes (SC): 20%

Scheduled Tribes (ST): 1.1%

Gounders (Kongu Vellala): 7%

Nadars: 6%

Brahmins: 3%

Christians: 6%

Muslims: 5%

Others: 4%

The reliability of any exit poll depends not just on sample size, but on how well that sample reflects the underlying population.

The Axis My India exit poll raises concerns on this front. From the data presented, it is unclear whether the “actual” figures refer to the composition of the sample or the real population. Regardless of interpretation, the sampling appears significantly skewed.

For instance, Brahmins constitute roughly 3% of the population, yet the poll samples them at around 9%. This is a substantial overrepresentation.

At the same time, communities such as Vanniyars (15%) and Thevars (12%) appear to be underrepresented in the sample, at roughly 7% and 2% respectively.

Such imbalances call into question the representativeness of the survey and, by extension, the reliability of its conclusions. If key demographic groups are not proportionally reflected, the resulting projections can be materially distorted.

What is equally surprising is the lack of scrutiny in public discourse. These discrepancies went largely unchallenged in televised debates, raising concerns about either a gap in analytical rigor or a tendency to prioritize sensational narratives over methodological soundness.

Twenty years on.

 This morning I chanced upon Siddhartha Vaidyanathan's this excellent piece on Twitter. He writes

Twenty years down the road, you might not remember all the details from this Test. What is likely to remain are vivid memories of time, place, and feeling. Where you watched this final day, at what time of the day or night, with whom. Maybe your phone buzzed with texts and notifications in the climactic stages. Maybe you slept through an entire session.

The man is a genius. He happens to be one of my favorite sportswriters. I haven't read anyone who can effortlessly capture every emotion that one would experience while watching a cricket match.

The final session of the Gabba test that ended on 19th Jan 2021 was truly epic! I have always been a fan of test cricket and T20 hasn't managed to allure me away from it. And I have been eagerly looking forward to this series down under and like everyone I was really apprehensive of India's chances.

Given that I was now in London, there was a challenge with the telecast time. The match telecast started at 11:30pm and ended at 7am! Luckily due to the lockdown caused by the pandemic, my sleep pattern was completely screwed and I didn't have much trouble staying up late and following the entire series. 

Cricket is a team sport! One fares well at it only if you are part of a good team( either as a player or a fan)! So on that final day (a really freezing morning in London) at around 6:45am, when India was 265/5, I messaged my college WhatsApp group asking if anyone was following the match. I got an immediate response from Deepak and Saravana; with Sapta joining a while later. What followed was a rollercoaster ride of emotions.

Frustration on Mayank throwing away his wicket. Delight at Pant's strokes. Awe at Washington Sundar's two fantastic hits of Cummins. A sigh when Sundar got out. Trepidation when Shardul Thakur fell. Sheer elation when Pant finally scored the winning runs (I did a Ganguly dance early in the morning)! The #Gabbatoir had been breached! All of these emotions were experienced during several texts that we exchanged in the group in a matter of 15-30 minutes!

SidVee in his article compares the just concluded Brisbane test to the Chennai test of 2001. Surprisingly, I had felt the same as well. I did say this to my friends on the chat.  Readers of this blog will know that I have already documented how my friends and I missed the birth of the Draxman legend. But would you believe it if I told you that we weren't fortunate enough to follow the 2001 Chennai test as well?

It so happened that on the final day of the test match, We were forced to remain in college well beyond the stipulated hours as we had to get our Analytical Chemistry records certified by our Professor. Our Professor had decided to take his NSS cadets to a camp and was expected to return only around 3pm that day. It was really frustrating! We however managed to find a guy who was following the scores on his car radio, and there we sat intently listening to the commentary. Every second of that see-saw battle in the final session was torture. The occasional Hindi commentary on the radio was comical (Thankfully we didn't have to put up with Manjrekar)! But, we all experienced the same rollercoaster of emotions during that final session of play! 

Twenty years have passed from Chennai to Brisbane. TWENTY YEARS! In these 2 decades, a lot has changed in our lives. We don't meet each other that often. We hardly see each other in person. Saravana and I live in the same city(worked in the same part of the city) but we haven't met each other for over 3 years now! We all have had our ups and downs in our lives. many of us are still learning and thinking about what to do with it! But I am really glad that one thing hasn't, the collective joy of watching a test match together!!

I am sure 20 years from today when all of us are close to retirement (or already retired) we will continue to enjoy cricket and test matches as we did on that day in Chennai!

How to measure success/failure of Demonetization?

1. When and where did anyone from Govt or RBI claim that they expect nearly 5 lakh crores of the 15.44 lakh crores to not comeback post demonetization? Do anyone of you have a video or news article regarding the same?

2. Can anyone point me to the stats of RBI that shows that 90% of 15.44 lakhs has comeback? Not from media outlets but from official Govt sites. PS: I am equally cynical os both Govt and News outlet figures.

3. Even if 100% money has returned how and why do journalists claim demonetization is a failure?

These are 3 honest and simple questions. Can anyone please objectively educate me on these 3 points?

Reflection

Whats the first thing that comes to your mind, when you hear the word "Reflection" ?

A mirror right?

Would you believe if I told you many years back, if I heard the word, I would think of the Java package java.lang.reflect!

Depending on which side of the spectrum you stand, you would now think me to be a loser or a pseudo-geek! That's understandable. But , in order to explain the how and they why behind my thought process, I would have to take you back in time.

After a disappointing Class XII results, I was literally left in the lurch! Obviously I wasn't good enough for IIT. Even though, I had a decent score in TNPCEE exams, my school scores weren't good enough to get me a free seat in any of the DOTE-I colleges. With my cut-off I could still manage a payment seat in any of the DOTE-II colleges. But neither my Dad nor I were willing to go that way. We weren't really sure if that was worth it.

To make matters worse, I did not receive interview calls from any of the Arts & Science colleges I had applied for (it turned out later on that most Arts & Science in Chennai hardly received any applicants from CBSE, so they rarely sent out invites to the few who applied).With colleges like Loyola and M.C.C also rejecting my application, I was getting really desperate. I wasn't sure what I was going to do if the rest of the colleges too do not send me an invite for an interview. From being on the verge of a successful launch to greater heights, I was now falling off the proverbial cliff!

I did receive an invite letter from Guru Nanak College after a couple of weeks. But the letter also mentioned that I was wait-listed candidate (Wait List No: 17)! With confidence at nadir, I really didn't know what to make of it. During the interview I did meet a lot of my old school friends. Apparently many of them had scored about the same marks as me (80%) and they too were wait-listed, but then all of them had already plans to pursue B.E/B.Tech degree even if they were to choose a payment seat in any of the DOTE-II colleges. They were attending this interview only as stop-gap solution, I was among the minority of my friends, who would continue to study the course fully if and when selected!

I was finally offered a seat, but my confidence had taken so hard a hit, I wasn't sure of anything anymore. You don't need me to tell you what a sorry figure you would become if your self confidence takes a hit! Late 90s in India saw a boom for the services industry. With software companies mushrooming at every nook and corner. There was a craze for programming courses and anyone who completed a 2-3 years course were getting employed quickly. Common sense required me to take up a computer course to ensure I was professionally employable (or at least competitive enough) once I completed my Bachelor's degree. I got myself admitted to NIIT after clearing their Bhavishya Jyothi scholarship program. But none of this did anything helpful in me regaining my self-confidence.

Luck seemed to had completely deserted me even at NIIT. I was assigned to a batch which had the worst faculty ever! She hardly knew her stuff and to compensate for it, she was a disaster in communication as well (What would you call a person who added an extra "ed" to the words called, told etc.?).

to be continued.....

Dreamsdrop

A flash of light, so bright that he could sense it even with his eyes closed and then the accompanying loud noise woke him from his slumber.



He found himself alone in a strange but familiar room. He is confused because he cannot recollect falling asleep in it. Further, he can't find either his wife or son!!



 "What place is this? Why does the place look familiar?" He recollects that yesterday was the 28th May 2016, he had gone to bed early. But he still can't conclude how he ended up here.



As his eyes adjusted to the light, he could see that he was in a small rectangular room which had a single door, but no windows.

The door was firmly closed, but he could see a strange flickering light seeping through the edges of the door.



He could hear feeble voices from the other side of the door. He walks over to the door and tries to open it, but the door wouldn't budge. He knocks at the door, hoping that whoever is outside would hear him and maybe open it! But despite multiple knocks and kicks, nobody opens the door.



He gives up on his futile attempt and tries to listen for the voices again. He hopes from the voice he might try figuring out his whereabouts.



He could hear two distinct voices; the first of a voice of a man in his late twenties and the second was that of a boy in teens. Surprisingly both the voices sounded familiar. However, He still couldn't place the faces associated with the voices. It was also evident that the two of them had been conversing for quite a while.



Man: So what do you think about your scores?


Boy: I hated Hindi, but still feel I could have scored better. I am disappointed with my Maths and Science scores, I think I did a lot better than what I scored. I should really have scored over 90 in SST. I am surprised I scored only 88. And finally, I am most disappointed with my English score.


Man: Disappointed?? You were the school topper in English and your score was among the top 0.1% across all CBSE students who appeared for the exam? Disappointed isn't the word that I would use here!!


Boy: I actually shared the top spot with two others. But ..... that isn't the problem. I mean, yeah I liked the spotlight and everything that came with it. But the truth is.. err... I didn't deserve it!!


Man: What do you mean? The marks or the spotlight?


Boy: I mean, I did write the paper well, I answered all the questions correctly. But I am not convinced that my answers were worth the top marks I received. I mean, I know a lot more people who are a lot better than me in English but scored lesser than me. I believe the marking scheme isn't ideal to evaluate someone in English. If only I had scored as well in either Science or Maths. I would be happy!


Man: Hmm. Point taken. Maybe that is why you never mention it anywhere nowadays!


Boy: What do you mean??


Man: I will come to that. But tell me, have you decided what you plan to do now?


Boy: Yes. I will take up Science stream in the same school.


Man: Don't you want to change your school? Move to a different board maybe, like many of your classmates?


Boy: Dad says "A good student will be able to score well in any school/syllabus"! And I really agree with him. Moreover, I don't think I can stand the teachings at any State Board schools. I am not good at rote learning anyway.


Man: Well, Dad is right.! I just wanted to test how confident you are with your decision. Believe me, when you are me, many will want you to believe this was your first mistake. But don't worry. That decision was probably worth all the trouble it gave you!


Boy: Any other words of advise? Please tell me what am I going to experience??


Man: I can, but then what's the fun in that? I shall, however, give you advice, without giving you specifics. Yes, you are about to embark on the best year of school life(Probably of your entire student life). A year in which you will experience many firsts. A year where you will meet the best of your friends. This will be a year where you will fall in crazily in love with something which results in you in ignoring other things that are equally important.



Boy: I will fall in love?? With what??




Man: I think you already know the answer to that question! Anyway, as I was saying. The thing you would fall in love with it won't be permanent. You won't pursue it more than 5 years


Boy: So are you saying, all that wouldn't be worth it?


Man: No, no... I mean, You will enjoy and cherish the experience. But you wouldn't pursue it any further, Probably because you will find a greater love (if at all there is such a term) and you will never regret it!



Inside the room, it suddenly dawned on our man why the voices sounded familiar to him. He had been part of the same conversation a long time back.  This was his dream a decade ago!!



This was eerie! How can one dream the same dream twice after a span of 10 years?



Was he in a dream again?? Was he in the same dream? No, that can't be!!

In the dream, he was the Man giving advise to his 15-year-old self. But here he seems to be experiencing the conversation from a third person's perspective! How is this even possible?? Where the hell is he?? And what the hell is going on??





Whatever the shit. He knew the series of events that was going to happen outside. He feared he might again end up again giving bad advise to his 15-year-old self. He had to get the door opened somehow. This was something he was determined to change at all cost. But he still couldn't get the door to open! He was desperate now!



Boy: OK. So any other tips?


Man: Yeah one main thing. You are too quick to arrive at decisions. Although you are almost always correct in the judgment you arrive yet. I would suggest that you will need to step back and slow down. This would help you when you become me!


Suddenly the doors melted. It looked as if, the door was waiting for this exact moment in the conversation before it could disappear. He dashes into the adjoining room shouting "Wait!!! Scratch that!".



He first looks at the Man and says "I know that from your experience, you are cautioning your younger self from taking hasty decisions, but believe me when you become me, you will really regret yourself for deliberating too long on the pros/cons of a situation before of arriving at few decisions!"



He looks at the Boy "Please continue to be yourself and trust your instincts! Your decisions are almost always correct! So don't be careless and at the same time don't be too careful either!"



"And finally please pay more attention to Physics this year, that will help you in the long run".



Boy: How would that help?



Given that we are part of this conversation every decade and also with the discovery of gravitational waves, maybe we can make this meeting a lot more fruitful next time around!!

Expectations from manifesto

Dear ADMK Manifesto writers,

Grapevine is abuzz with rumors that your party is planning to announce any one of the following freebies in your manifesto.
(a) LCD TV
(b) Scooty
(c) Refridgerator
(d) 200 units free power
(e) Gold for marriage from 4g to 8g

Its election time and probably the only time, you guys are willing to listen to listen to our feedback. So let me stick my neck out and put in my preference.

I am already married, I don't need the 4g to 8g gold. What can one do with Gold anyway? I would have to deposit it in bank locker(for which I have to pay an annual rent)!

I don't need a refrigerator, as my kitchen already has one and there is not enough room to have two refrigerators in one kitchen.

I don't need 200 units of free power because after the election I know that whichever party comes to power there is gonna be massive power cuts, and I anyway stand to gain more than 200 units per month.

I don't need a scooty because there is hardly any place to park the vehicle at home and also I am frightened the impact this will have on the road traffic. (Psst. I just hope Arvind Kejriwal doesn't get a wind of this, he might announce an Odd-Even plan in Chennai as well)!!

I would prefer an LCD, but please ensure that the TV is at least 40inches and is from either Samsung, LG or Sony brands. But the main thing is that I don't want an Amma Screensaver on it. You must be aware that the last time DMK provided free TV sets, the voters were so irritated seeing DMK leader's face everytime the TV was switched on that they actually voted the party out for it!!!

#kthnxbai